A busy day expected with a number of important top tier items of fundamental news although yesterday did see the FTSE 100 fall below 5000 briefly for the first time since the start of October.  UK stocks showed they still had some fight in them though with an afternoon rally bringing a close above this psychologically important level. US markets like Nasdaq (US Tech 100) also enjoyed a late session surge and the FTSE is currently set to open up around 0.8% higher today.

Forex markets are relatively quiet after an inconclusive day’s trading yesterday. The yen is showing some weakness, especially against the euro (EUR/JPY), pound (GBP/JPY) and Aussie dollar (AUD/JPY). However moves have been unspectacular so far.  This cautious early trading is the market waiting for the ADP numbers and the FED statement.  The ADP estimates the change in the number of people employed during the previous month and compares this to the previous month.  For the last three months, the ADP has been negative with employment dropping each month. However, the pace of this decline has been slowing and analysts are betting on the number for last month coming in at -188,000.  Traders watch for any big deviations away from this number and there could be fireworks in US dollar pairs, especially the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY.

Next we have the latest FOMC (US central bank) statement and market consensus is that the FED will keep rates at near zero, but traders will be watching for any reference to any so called quantitative easing activities which will again impact the dollar.

What’s hot?

The pound (if betting against): EUR/GBP & GBP/JPY

Bet idea:

So called ‘Fed’ days can be highly volatile, but it’s also quite common for forex pairs like the GBP/USD finish the day mostly unchanged once all the thrashing about has subsided. It might pay to wait for a big reaction on the GBP/USD then bet the other way.